For Vladimir Putin, this is the end of the road.
He may just survive an armed rebellion by Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner mercenaries but he will be permanently damaged and his Kremlin days are numbered.
Mr Putin’s aura of invincibility and control, badly fractured by his misguided and failed invasion of Ukraine, will now be shattered.
Russians prefer their leaders to be tough and regard weakness as terminal.
Millions of Russians who had once looked up to Mr Putin as their indomitable saviour, a man they cheered for restoring Russian pride after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 and the humiliation of the 1990s, will instead see a damaged and failed man.
Formerly obsequious Russian officials who had crawled over one another to please Putin in the hope of currying fortune and favours will now look to others.
And Russian and Soviet leaders rarely survive for long after a coup, even if it initially fails.
Locked up in a villa in Crimea, Mikhail Gorbachev sat out a coup by Kremlin hardliners in August 1991 but his power ebbed away and within five months he had lost his position as Soviet leader.
Two years later, Boris Yeltsin, Russia’s president, turned his tanks on the Russian parliament after they tried to dislodge him from power. It worked and shored up his presidency but the chaos that his coup unleashed ate up Yeltsin, who turned to drink.
Rebellion against incompetent leaders
By New Year’s Eve 1999/2000, bloated and in ill health, he had given up after a chaotic six years as president and quit in favour of Mr Putin.
The hyperactive Mr Prigozhin has been at pains to make it clear that this is not a coup but instead a rebellion against Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s Minister of Defence, and Valery Gerasimov, the head of the Russian military, who he accuses of incompetence that has killed thousands of Russian soldiers.
However the rebellion is dressed up, Mr Putin is the head of the Russian state. If Russian soldiers are fighting Russian mercenaries in Russia, his leadership will be permanently compromised.
And this also appears to be a well-planned rebellion by Mr Prigozhin and his private army. Reports have said that they have captured key military sites around the cities of Rostov and Voronezh and that they plan to march on Moscow.
His video rants against the Russian military had been getting increasingly personal throughout the week and on Friday he drifted from well-worn criticism of Russian military tactics to challenging the motivations for the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine, which he also described as unnecessary and a failure.
This was dangerous territory because everybody understands that Mr Putin decided to invade.
Mr Pirgozhin has said that he has recruited 25,000 fighters to his cause. Some of these will be ex-convict chancers but others will be the best Russian soldiers, former special forces and former members of the Kremlin guard.
Although that number should be taken with a pinch of salt, they are loyal to Mr Prigozhin who they admire for standing up to the Russian military and for capturing Bakhmut after a tough eight months siege.
Questionable leadership and low morale
It is unclear if the Russian army, which is better armed with more tanks, attack helicopters and warplanes but is low on morale and suffering from questionable leadership, will be able to stand up to a smaller but well-motivated and determined force.
Certainly, it is shocking to see Wagner recruits patrolling the streets of Rostov-on-Don, the southern city Mr Prigozhin claims to have already seized.
Mr Prigozhin has also appealed to members of the National Guard, one of the biggest armies inside Russia, and other soldiers to join him. Whether they will is a key question. General Sergei Surovikin, known as General Armageddon and someone seen as closely tied to the Wagner group, has told Russian soldiers to stay loyal to the Kremlin.
Dithering, cruel and callous
With Russian forces decimated and demoralised after 16 months of war in Ukraine, the Kremlin will be worried. Reports from the frontline have also said that Ukrainian forces have pushed their counteroffensive as Mr Prigozhin’s coup unfolds, testing the mettle of already-brittle Russian soldiers.
And then there is Mr Putin’s response.
Regarded by analysts who have studied him as a dithering, cruel and callous, opportunist, Mr Putin disappeared from sight for several hours before issuing a statement this morning calling the rebels traitors. Paranoid and out of touch, his first reaction had been to hide, leaving a leadership vacuum.
Mr Prigozhin has played many roles for Mr Putin, his patron for two decades. He has been Mr Putin’s chef, sommelier, fixer and mercenary warlord but his most consequential will be his final one – Mr Putin’s Judas
[ad_2]
Source link
