Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told lawmakers that nearly all Fed officials expect to raise interest rates this year after the central bank opted to take a breather last week at its June policy meeting.
“Nearly all FOMC participants expect that it will be appropriate to raise interest rates somewhat further by the end of the year,” said Powell in remarks at a House Financial Services Committee hearing Wednesday.
“But at last week’s meeting, considering how far and how fast we have moved, we judged it prudent to hold the target range steady to allow the Committee to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy.”
Powell is appearing today before the House and Thursday before a Senate committee as part of his semiannual two-day testimony to Congress.
Powell also addressed with lawmakers the bank failures that happened in the spring, including the fall of Silicon Valley Bank. The chairman reiterated that the banking system remains “sound and resilient,” and reiterated that the central bank is exploring strengthening rules.
“The recent bank failures, including the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, and the resulting banking stress have highlighted the importance of ensuring we have the appropriate rules and supervisory practices for banks of this size,” said Powell.
Powell, according to his remarks, said inflation is still running high even though it’s moderated since the middle of last year. He also said there are signs the job market is coming into better balance, pointing to an increase in labor force participation, easing in wage growth and drop in job vacancies.
Labor demand, however, still substantially exceeds the supply of available workers even though the jobs-to-workers gap has narrowed.
“The process of getting inflation back down to 2 percent has a long way to go,” said Powell. “It will take time, however, for the full effects of monetary restraint to be realized, especially on inflation.”
Powell reiterated that the Fed will make decisions on interest rates meeting by meeting based on the data. Officials will be able to evaluate another jobs report, an inflation report and a series of bank earnings between now and the next policy meeting at the end of July.
Powell’s comments come after the central bank decided to hold off raising rates at its policy meeting last week, but raised their interest rate forecasts for this year, signaling rates could rise to as high as 5.6%. That implied two additional rate hikes are likely this year. Three officials see rates rising closer to 6%.
Powell said last week that now that the Fed is closer to the peak rate the central bank doesn’t have to move as quickly as it did over the last year. The Fed can afford to moderate the pace of rate hikes to give the economy more time to adapt and make better decisions on interest rates.
Powell said last week the committee did not make a decision about what will happen at the next meeting nor did members talk about adopting a strategy of hiking every other meeting.
While the Fed chair said July would be a live meeting, he didn’t tip his hand. The markets are currently pricing in a nearly 80% chance of a rate hike in July.
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