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Wagner fighters may not be safe in Belarus as it could be a trap after their uprising, the ISW said.
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Belarus won’t be a “true haven” for Wagner and its leader if the Kremlin intervenes, it said.
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Another expert said he would be “very surprised” if Prigozhin was still alive in a few month’s time.
Russian President Vladimir Putin may have tricked Wagner Group fighters with the option of going to Belarus, experts at the Washington DC-based Institute for the Study of War said.
The ISW said in an update on Monday that “Putin may be presenting Belarus as a haven for Wagner fighters as a trap.”
Following the group’s dramatic uprising that threatened Russia’s domestic security, Putin said on Monday that Wagner mercenaries could exit the country and go to Belarus with their leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, or they could return to civilian life, or sign contracts with Russia’s defense ministry.
But “the Kremlin will likely regard the Wagner Group personnel who follow Prigozhin to Belarus as traitors whether or not it takes immediate action against them,” the ISW said.
And if the Kremlin pressures Belarus, it said, “Belarus will not offer Prigozhin or Wagner fighters a true haven.”
Another expert also said Prigozhin could soon end up being punished harshly.
Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group, told CNBC that Prigozhin is a “kind of dead man walking at this point.”
“I would be very surprised that he’s still with us in a few months’ time,” he said.
The Wagner Group’s short-lived uprising, which humiliated Putin and provided what experts said was the biggest threat during his decades in power, came after months of feuding between the Wagner Group and Russia’s military brass.
Over the weekend, Wagner mercenaries took over the military headquarters in the key Russian city of Rostov-on-Don and started to march towards Moscow.
After a day of tensions, Belarus’ president, Alexander Lukashenko, announced on Saturday night that he had mediated and that the uprising was over.
The Kremlin said the deal included Prigozhin going into exile in Belarus, Russia’s neighbor and closest ally, which is seen as something of a Russian puppet state.
Prigozhin said in a video on Monday that he started the uprising because “society demanded it” and that “it was not our goal to overthrow the regime,” The Guardian reported.
He also said that he accepted Russia’s deal to avoid bloodshed.
It is not clear where Prigozhin is as of Tuesday, but the ISW noted unconfirmed reports that he was in a hotel in Minsk, Belarus’ capital.
Russian media outlet Verstka reported that Belarus is constructing a base for around 8,000 Wagner fighters 124 miles from its border with Ukraine.
In a speech on Monday, Putin said the mutiny threatened Russia. He did not name Prigozhin, and did not repeat his earlier comments that those behind it would be punished.
The ISW said that Putin likely didn’t arrest Wagner commanders for treason because Russia needs “trained and effective manpower.”
The Wagner Group has provided a military boost for Russia since it launched its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, at times leading initiatives in key battles and displaying brutal tactics that Russia’s military later started to copy.
But the groups had an escalating feud, with Prigozhin accusing Russian military leadership of not giving his fighters ammunition and trying to “destroy” his group.
Prigozhin also said earlier this month said he was refusing the Ministry of Defence’s efforts to bring his group under its control.
Read the original article on Business Insider
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